Washington Monthly looks at the possibility of a decisive Kerry win in the article,
A Kerry Landslide? Why the next election won’t be close.
From the article:
“Over the last year, most political TV shows handicapping the upcoming presidential election have repeated the refrain that the race will be extremely tight…
…But there’s another possibility, one only now being floated by a few political operatives: 2004 could be a decisive victory for Kerry. The reason to think so is historical. Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent–and in recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins. If you look at key indicators beyond the neck-and-neck support for the two candidates in the polls–such as high turnout in the early Democratic primaries and the likelihood of a high turnout in November–it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it’s going to be Kerry in a rout.”